Pocket Football

Pocket Football

FOOTBALL BETTING BASICS

FOOTBALL BETTING BASICS

Welcome to the first in a series of articles that will examine
some of the finer points in sports betting for newcomers to the
idea of trying to get the edge on the bookie. Many of the ideas
will be applicable to other sports, but we'll be focusing on
football. Much of this stuff will be old-hat to old-timers but I
hope many people will get at least a few ideas from the articles.

***This series of article was written for Bettorsworld by long
time contributor "Shawn".

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This Week: Q & A ABOUT "THE LINE"

1. "What the Line means - and what it doesn't."

Suppose you have a local bookie who lets you bet the line
printed in your local newspaper's sports section. On the
Wednesday before the NFL season kicks off you open the paper and
under "NFL Lines" you see:

(Favorites listed first, home team in CAPS)

JETS 6.5 Patriots

OK so what does this mean? This means you can call your bookie
and bet $11 on the Jets. If the Jets win by 7 points or more you
get the $11 back plus $10 more. If the Jets win by 6 or less, or
the Patriots win, you lose the $11. Or, if you like the
Patriots, you can bet $11 on them. If they win, or lose by six
or less, you cash in, getting your $11 back plus $10 more. If
the Jets win by 7 or more, your money on the Patriots is gone.
Of course you can bet more than $11 to win $10. You can bet $55
to win $50, $110 to win $100, or more. Generally you risk $11
for every $10 you want to profit...that's the standard and it
varies little.

A line is also called a "point spread" or "spread".

So what does it REALLY mean? The number 6.5 is the head start in
points the line-maker gives the Patriots. He thinks, and your
bookie is very much hoping, that if that's the head start given
the Patriots for wagering purposes, half of the bookie's
clients' dough will be bet on the Jets and the other half on the
Patriots.

Why is this important? The smart bookie doesn't want to
gamble-he wants a sure thing: a guaranteed profit from his
customers. Consider the simplest case where a bookie has just
two bettors, you and me, and this number of 6.5 does its job.
You bet $11 on the Jets and I bet $11 on the Patriots. One of us
wins. Let's say it's me...I hate the Jets. I get my $11 back,
plus $10 of your money. The extra $1 you put in stays in the
bookmaker's pocket as his small, guaranteed profit (it's called
"vig" or "juice").

What does the Line NOT mean? It does not mean, under any
circumstances, that oddsmakers think the Jets will win by about
6 or 7 points. It's your job to predict who will win and by how
much...the line-maker doesn't want to do your job for you. He
works for the bookies. He and the bookies don't care who wins or
loses or by how much-they just want the same amount of cash on
each side so the bookies can get juice. The line-maker tries to
come up with the handicap of points that will put half the
public's money on the Jets, and half on the Patriots. As long as
the money is split evenly, the bookie "wins" in his own way, and
the result of the game is of no importance to him.

2. "Whoa. The Line is different today from yesterday. What's
with that?"

So the next day in the paper, it's now

Jets 7 Patriots

instead. Now if you like the Jets they've got to win by 8 or
more for you to cash in. If you like the Patriots, they can win
or lose by 6 or less and you'll win. (If the game lands on a Jet
win by exactly 7, anybody who bet while the line was 7 just has
their money refunded...you get the line at the time you bet,
even if it changes later.)

The Line moved because the line-maker consulted with some big
sports books and the money wasn't balanced when the number was
6.5-there was more coming in on the Jets than the Patriots. So
the line-maker and bookies changed the number to try to
encourage more bets on the Patriots to even things up and get
that juice.

(Line movement is complicated and these are only the basics.
Detailing line movements and other things a bookie can do to
"even up" the betting would take pages. One thing that the
bookie could do instead of moving the line is to say "It's still
6.5 but Jets bettors have to lay $11.50 to win $10 and Patriots
backers can lay only $10.50 to win $10." This is called "moving
the money instead of the line". Think about this one. It's
especially common when the line is exactly 3 points, a football
winning margin that actually occurs a lot.)

3. "Why do different places have different Lines on the same
game?"

Suppose you have access to several bookies (this is a good idea
and we'll talk about it in a later article) and you find they
have different lines, like:

Bookie A: Jets by 6.5 (from the Newspaper)

Bookie B: Jets by 6

Bookie C: Jets by 7

Canbet: Jets by 6.5

Victor Chandler: Jets by 7

Bowmans: Jets by 6.5

Everybody but the bookie who blindly follows the paper is trying
to balance the Jets bets with the Patriots bets. Maybe Bookie B
is in Boston so he is a little lopsided on people betting for
the Patriots -- so he's trying to entice Jets bettors to step
up. Maybe Bookie C is in the Bronx (so he has too much money on
the Jets at 6.5), and maybe Victor Chandler's clients bet
favorite teams a lot instead of underdog teams, so they're
looking for more money on the Patriots right now.

In the above example if you like the Jets you'll take your
business to Bookie B because if the Jets win by exactly 7 you're
a winner, and if the Jets win by exactly 6, it's the only shop
at which you don't lose. If you like the Patriots, in this
example Bookie C or Victor Chandler are the places to play
because the Patriots get more points as a head-start there. More
on line-shopping in a few weeks.

http://www.bettorsworld.com

About the Author

http://www.bettorsworld.com

is recognized as the authority on offshore sportsbooks having
served the betting community since 1995.

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